Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Cowboys KC @ DAL

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 4:30 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

5-5-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
CHIEFS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

78.4%

Cowboys Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

14.7%

KC By 7-13 points

19.7%

DAL By 1-6 points

10.0%

DAL By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
KANSAS CITY
20
DALLAS
Simulated Score
27
KANSAS CITY
30
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 KC @ DAL 28 - 31
Nov 21, 2021 DAL @ KC 9 - 19
Nov 5, 2017 KC @ DAL 17 - 28
Sep 15, 2013 DAL @ KC 16 - 17
Oct 11, 2009 DAL @ KC 26 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
Dallas: 1.6 vs Kansas City: 1.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.5% more
Dallas: 6.1 vs Kansas City: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 31.0 28
DAL Score 20.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 25.2 23.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 280.8 / 283.9 320.0 / 243.0
Rushing Yards 119.7 / 115.1 137.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.49
Total Yards 400.5 / 399.0 457.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.5 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
KC
DAL
KC
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
67% 2-1-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 14 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 7 hours, 15 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 13 hours, 35 minutes ago