Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Wolverines SAM @ UVU

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

4-5  |  Road

45
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 6:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya
View Odds Details →

UTAH VALLEY

WOLVERINESUVU

5-2  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
WOLVERINES
100%
BULLDOGS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Samford)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 WolverinesUVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

88.5%

Wolverines Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

SAM By 1-7 points

20.1%

SAM By 8-14 points

27.2%

UVU By 1-7 points

8.0%

UVU By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
94
SAMFORD
82
UTAH VALLEY
Simulated Score
72
SAMFORD
75
UTAH VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 SAM @ UVU 45 - 89
Nov 27, 2024 UVU @ SAM 76 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +124.3% more
Utah Valley: 10.4 vs Samford: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +100.7% more
Utah Valley: 5.6 vs Samford: 2.8
Assists (L5) +54.2% more
Utah Valley: 17.6 vs Samford: 11.4
Turnovers (L5) +49.9% more
Utah Valley: 14.2 vs Samford: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 94.0 45
UVU Score 82.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 31.1 50.0 / 22.0
Assists 17.6 / 11.4 24.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.8 10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.4 / 42.5 56.0 / 25.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 69.5 80.0 / 42.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 36.5 44.0 / 34.0
Steals 10.4 / 4.7 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 9.5 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
UVU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
UVU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVU
SAM
UVU
SAM
ML
56% 18-14
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
ATS
53% 17-15
68% 21-10
74% 25-9
68% 21-10
TTL
44% 14-18
35% 11-20
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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