SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
2-5 | Road
72
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
4-2 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
REDHAWKS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Northern Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAU)
SEMO By 1-7 points
12.2%
SEMO By 8-14 points
4.0%
NAU By 1-7 points
24.3%
NAU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
67
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Northern Arizona
76
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
70
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Northern Arizona
74
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
SEMO @ NAU
72 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+26.7% more
Northern Arizona: 8.6
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 6.8
Rebounding (L5)
+12.5% more
Northern Arizona: 36.9
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 32.8
Blocks (L5)
+10.9% more
Northern Arizona: 3.2
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 2.9
Assists (L5)
+10.8% more
Northern Arizona: 14.1
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
67.0
72
NAU Score
76.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 29.6
38.0 / 21.0
Assists
14.1 / 12.8
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.2 / 2.9
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 46.8
53.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
62.5 / 71.4
72.0 / 54.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 32.8
37.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.8
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 12.9
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
NAU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
SEMO
NAU
SEMO
ML
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
81%
26-6
50%
15-15
ATS
62%
20-12
67%
22-11
81%
26-6
50%
15-15
TTL
66%
21-11
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…
New Mexico Lobos to Host Washington State and Arizona State in P…
NC State Basketball: Justin Gainey Era Begins with 32-Game Slate…
UConn Adds Shaw with Deep Basketball Roots and Veteran Presence …
What Are the Biggest Takeaways From the Kings’ Summer League?