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GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

1-7  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 3:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

6-0  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
PANTHERS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

11.5%

Aggies Cover

88.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU +12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

GAST By 1-7 points

20.1%

GAST By 8-14 points

27.2%

NMSU By 1-7 points

8.0%

NMSU By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
82
GEORGIA STATE
70
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
72
GEORGIA STATE
75
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 GAST @ NMSU 58 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.1%
Georgia State: 78.1% vs New Mexico State: 70.9%
Blocks (L5) +26.4% more
New Mexico State: 3.0 vs Georgia State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +12.3% more
New Mexico State: 38.1 vs Georgia State: 33.9
Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
New Mexico State: 43.8% vs Georgia State: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 82.0 58
NMSU Score 70.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 27.0 39.0 / 21.0
Assists 10.9 / 10.2 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.4 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 33.3 38.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 78.1 71.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 33.9 49.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.8 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 12.5 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
GAST
NMSU
GAST
ML
61% 19-12
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
71% 22-9
ATS
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
67% 20-10
71% 22-9
TTL
45% 14-17
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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