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ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

3-5  |  Road

87
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

5-2  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
HORNETS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
87.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (New Mexico)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

13.6%

Lobos Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

ALST By 1-7 points

9.3%

ALST By 8-14 points

2.7%

UNM By 1-7 points

21.6%

UNM By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
38
ALABAMA STATE
49
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
62
ALABAMA STATE
88
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 87.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 ALST @ UNM 87 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +63.4% more
Alabama State: 4.5 vs New Mexico: 1.7
Steals (L5) +26.0% more
Alabama State: 8.8 vs New Mexico: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
Alabama State: 73.9% vs New Mexico: 71.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 38.0 87
UNM Score 49.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 31.0 46.0 / 50.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.0 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.7 / 4.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 42.3 50.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 73.9 71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 37.4 27.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.8 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 11.4 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
ALST
UNM
ALST
ML
57% 21-16
65% 20-11
74% 25-9
76% 19-6
ATS
57% 21-16
65% 20-11
74% 25-9
76% 19-6
TTL
41% 15-22
52% 16-15
100% 34-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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