Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Seahawks SELA @ UNCW

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

1-5  |  Road

57
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

5-1  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
LIONS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
LionsSELA (-3.5) 0 SeahawksUNCW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

8.1%

Seahawks Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)

SELA By 1-7 points

5.8%

SELA By 8-14 points

1.4%

UNCW By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNCW By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
59
SE LOUISIANA
73
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
65
SE LOUISIANA
78
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 SELA @ UNCW 57 - 70
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.5%
UNC Wilmington: 38.5% vs SE Louisiana: 24.0%
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
UNC Wilmington: 15.9 vs SE Louisiana: 14.2
Rebounding (L5) +11.5% more
UNC Wilmington: 40.7 vs SE Louisiana: 36.5
Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
UNC Wilmington: 47.8% vs SE Louisiana: 39.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 59.0 57
UNCW Score 73.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 24.0 24.0 / 17.0
Assists 15.9 / 14.2 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.0 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 39.7 45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 75.5 77.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 36.5 40.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.0 / 9.9 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 15.3 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
UNCW Advantage
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
SELA
UNCW
SELA
ML
64% 21-12
70% 21-9
52% 17-16
66% 19-10
ATS
58% 19-14
60% 18-12
52% 17-16
67% 20-10
TTL
61% 20-13
70% 21-9
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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