DETROIT
PISTONSDET
15-2 | Road
114
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
9-8 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
CELTICS
100%
PISTONS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
20.1%
DET By 8-14 points
27.2%
BOS By 1-7 points
8.0%
BOS By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
87
DETROIT
Boston
75
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
115
DETROIT
Boston
102
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
BOS @ DET
103 - 104
Dec 15, 2025
DET @ BOS
112 - 105
Nov 26, 2025
DET @ BOS
114 - 117
Oct 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
113 - 119
Feb 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
97 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.7% more
Detroit: 9.8
vs
Boston: 6.3
Turnovers (L5)
+34.4% more
Detroit: 15.7
vs
Boston: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Detroit: 53.7%
vs
Boston: 51.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
87.0
114
BOS Score
75.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 38.6
47.0 / 31.0
Assists
26.4 / 27.5
24.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.3 / 5.1
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 53.7
44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 73.9
88.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
43.6 / 41.2
44.0 / 56.0
Steals
6.3 / 9.8
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 15.7
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BOS
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
57%
61-46
55%
64-53
53%
47-41
49%
47-49
ATS
59%
61-43-3
53%
60-54-3
53%
47-41
49%
47-49
TTL
56%
60-47
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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