Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Pelicans MEM @ NO

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

6-12  |  Road

133
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-15  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

46.0%

Pelicans Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

MEM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

16.9%

NO By 1-7 points

24.3%

NO By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
126
MEMPHIS
125
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
112
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o235.5 Win
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim u235.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 30, 2026 MEM @ NO 106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026 NO @ MEM 133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025 MEM @ NO 133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025 NO @ MEM 122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025 MEM @ NO 107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.6% more
Memphis: 30.9 vs New Orleans: 24.6
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
Memphis: 79.3% vs New Orleans: 75.9%
Steals (L5) +57.1% more
New Orleans: 10.7 vs Memphis: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +29.3% more
New Orleans: 15.5 vs Memphis: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 126.0 133
NO Score 125.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 30.8 42.0 / 46.0
Assists 24.6 / 30.9 34.0 / 38.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.1 9.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 43.6 50.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 79.3 90.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 47.3 / 48.5 40.0 / 49.0
Steals 10.7 / 6.8 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 12.0 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MEM
NO
MEM
ML
62% 98-61
57% 59-44
58% 48-35
50% 41-41
ATS
68% 107-51-1
63% 65-38
58% 48-35
50% 41-41
TTL
75% 119-40
70% 71-31-1
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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