PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
11-7 | Road
112
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
5-13 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
KINGS
0%
SUNS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
PHX By 1-7 points
0.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.0%
SAC By 1-7 points
0.1%
SAC By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
75
PHOENIX
Sacramento
112
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
109
PHOENIX
Sacramento
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
PHX @ SAC
114 - 103
Jan 2, 2026
SAC @ PHX
102 - 129
Nov 26, 2025
PHX @ SAC
112 - 100
Oct 22, 2025
SAC @ PHX
116 - 120
Apr 13, 2025
PHX @ SAC
98 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+31.6% more
Sacramento: 27.0
vs
Phoenix: 20.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.2%
Sacramento: 83.4%
vs
Phoenix: 74.2%
Blocks (L5)
+28.0% more
Phoenix: 4.1
vs
Sacramento: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+25.9% more
Phoenix: 17.1
vs
Sacramento: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
75.0
112
SAC Score
112.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 37.4
35.0 / 33.0
Assists
27.0 / 20.5
20.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.1
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 45.2
47.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
83.4 / 74.2
80.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 42.3
41.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.4 / 10.8
9.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 17.1
19.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
PHX
SAC
PHX
ML
55%
55-45
57%
60-45
61%
50-32
51%
45-43
ATS
54%
52-45-3
58%
59-43-3
61%
50-32
51%
45-43
TTL
58%
57-42-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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