PEPPERDINE
WAVESPEPP
3-3 | Road
53
FRESNO STATE
BULLDOGSFRES
5-2 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
WAVES
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-46.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +46.0 points (Fresno State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FRES -46.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)
PEPP By 1-7 points
0.0%
PEPP By 8-14 points
0.0%
FRES By 1-7 points
0.0%
FRES By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pepperdine
68
PEPPERDINE
Fresno State
114
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
Pepperdine
68
PEPPERDINE
Fresno State
72
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
PEPP @ FRES
53 - 76
Nov 22, 2021
FRES @ PEPP
70 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.7% more
Fresno State: 8.2
vs
Pepperdine: 6.2
Turnovers (L5)
+29.3% more
Fresno State: 14.5
vs
Pepperdine: 11.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Fresno State: 50.3%
vs
Pepperdine: 43.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Fresno State: 36.5%
vs
Pepperdine: 32.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score
68.0
53
FRES Score
114.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 32.3
30.0 / 21.0
Assists
13.7 / 14.5
20.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.1
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 43.4
48.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 83.5
50.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 35.0
32.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.2
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 11.2
7.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
FRES
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
FRES
Advantage
21-10-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.4
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
PEPP
FRES
PEPP
ML
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
74%
23-8
69%
22-10
ATS
75%
24-8
56%
18-14
74%
23-8
69%
22-10
TTL
56%
18-14
50%
16-16
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
WKU Men's Basketball Kicks Off Official Practices with Revamped …
Oregon Freshman Jett Washington Embraces Kobe Bryant Legacy Whil…