Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Falcons UNCO @ AF

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

6-1  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 6:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-5  |  Home

53
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
BEARS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Northern Colorado)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 FalconsAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

100.0%

Falcons Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCO -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCO)

UNCO By 1-7 points

0.1%

UNCO By 8-14 points

0.8%

AF By 1-7 points

0.0%

AF By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
NORTHERN COLORADO
44
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
72
NORTHERN COLORADO
75
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 UNCO @ AF 71 - 53
Dec 16, 2024 AF @ UNCO 76 - 81
Dec 21, 2023 UNCO @ AF 83 - 79
Dec 20, 2022 AF @ UNCO 67 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.2%
Northern Colorado: 82.3% vs Air Force: 71.1%
Steals (L5) +65.4% more
Air Force: 6.6 vs Northern Colorado: 4.0
Blocks (L5) +27.0% more
Air Force: 3.3 vs Northern Colorado: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +15.4% more
Air Force: 14.2 vs Northern Colorado: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 82.0 71
AF Score 44.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 32.3 18.0 / 42.0
Assists 17.0 / 17.6 9.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.6 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 46.8 41.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 82.3 57.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 38.5 28.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.6 / 4.0 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.3 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
UNCO
AF
UNCO
ML
81% 26-6
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
ATS
69% 22-10
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
TTL
69% 22-10
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 8 hours, 28 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 15 hours ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 21 hours, 8 minutes ago
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 14 hours ago
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
saturdaydownsouth 2 days, 8 hours ago