Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Bengals SHSU @ IDST

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

3-2  |  Road

84
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 6:30 PM ET
Idaho Central Arena
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

3-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
BEARKATS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Sam Houston)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

61.8%

Bengals Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SHSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

IDST By 1-7 points

21.6%

IDST By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
75
SAM HOUSTON
72
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
72
SAM HOUSTON
68
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearkats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearkats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearkats (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bearkats (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 SHSU @ IDST 84 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.5% more
Sam Houston: 6.4 vs Idaho State: 5.0
Assists (L5) +21.1% more
Sam Houston: 16.9 vs Idaho State: 13.3
Rebounding (L5) +20.5% more
Sam Houston: 46.4 vs Idaho State: 36.9
Turnovers (L5) +20.1% more
Sam Houston: 13.1 vs Idaho State: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 75.0 84
IDST Score 72.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.5 / 31.0 29.0 / 32.0
Assists 13.3 / 16.9 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.8 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 47.5 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 78.0 78.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 46.4 23.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.0 / 6.4 6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 13.1 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
SHSU
IDST
SHSU
ML
59% 19-13
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
ATS
50% 16-16
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
TTL
59% 19-13
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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