COLUMBIA
LIONSCOLU
5-1 | Road
106
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
4-2 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
STAGS
0%
LIONS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
COLU By 1-7 points
16.9%
COLU By 8-14 points
6.8%
FAIR By 1-7 points
26.8%
FAIR By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Columbia
78
COLUMBIA
Fairfield
84
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Columbia
68
COLUMBIA
Fairfield
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
COLU @ FAIR
106 - 77
Dec 28, 2024
FAIR @ COLU
72 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+11.5% more
Fairfield: 7.2
vs
Columbia: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Fairfield: 75.7%
vs
Columbia: 71.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+37.4% more
Columbia: 14.1
vs
Fairfield: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+34.1% more
Columbia: 18.1
vs
Fairfield: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COLU Score
78.0
106
FAIR Score
84.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 40.3
32.0 / 55.0
Assists
12.0 / 18.1
8.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.7
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 48.2
41.0 / 63.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 71.4
69.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 41.6
30.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.4
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 14.1
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLU
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLU
Advantage
13-13-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: -1.1
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
COLU
FAIR
COLU
ML
55%
18-15
44%
12-15
61%
20-13
56%
15-12
ATS
48%
16-17
59%
16-11
61%
20-13
56%
15-12
TTL
48%
16-17
74%
20-7
100%
33-0
100%
27-0
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