Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beach @ Pilots LBSU @ PORT

LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

1-5  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 10:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

4-3  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
0%
📊
PILOTS
100%
BEACH --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Long Beach State)
BeachLBSU (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beach Cover

91.9%

Pilots Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LBSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)

LBSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

LBSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

PORT By 1-7 points

5.8%

PORT By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
78
LONG BEACH STATE
64
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
73
LONG BEACH STATE
78
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beach Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beach (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 LBSU @ PORT 73 - 93
Nov 16, 2024 PORT @ LBSU 63 - 61
Nov 6, 2023 LBSU @ PORT 73 - 78
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Long Beach State: 34.7% vs Portland: 30.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
Long Beach State: 69.8% vs Portland: 66.3%
Assists (L5) +83.3% more
Portland: 19.7 vs Long Beach State: 10.8
Blocks (L5) +39.1% more
Portland: 2.8 vs Long Beach State: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score 78.0 73
PORT Score 64.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 34.7 50.0 / 27.0
Assists 19.7 / 10.8 26.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 43.9 70.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 66.3 / 69.8 89.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 37.0 30.0 / 24.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.6 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 11.8 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
PORT Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
LBSU
PORT
LBSU
ML
48% 16-17
55% 17-14
82% 27-6
65% 20-11
ATS
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
82% 28-6
65% 20-11
TTL
55% 18-15
61% 19-12
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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