Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roadrunners @ Eagles UTSA @ GASO

UTSA

ROADRUNNERSUTSA

4-3  |  Road

77
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 9:00 PM ET
John Hurst Adams Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

3-5  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
ROADRUNNERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UTSA)
RoadrunnersUTSA (-3.5) 0 EaglesGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roadrunners Cover

69.1%

Eagles Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTSA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

UTSA By 1-7 points

27.2%

UTSA By 8-14 points

23.0%

GASO By 1-7 points

18.6%

GASO By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
87
UTSA
82
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
68
UTSA
72
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Roadrunners Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Roadrunners (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 UTSA @ GASO 77 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
UTSA: 39.0 vs Georgia Southern: 34.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
UTSA: 33.6% vs Georgia Southern: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
UTSA: 43.2% vs Georgia Southern: 39.6%
Turnovers (L5) +21.5% more
Georgia Southern: 13.5 vs UTSA: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 87.0 77
GASO Score 82.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 33.6 24.0 / 26.0
Assists 10.4 / 11.2 7.0 / 5.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.7 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 39.6 / 43.2 30.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 61.8 58.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 39.0 40.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.1 / 8.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 11.1 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
GASO Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
UTSA
GASO
UTSA
ML
56% 20-16
83% 24-5
58% 19-14
48% 14-15
ATS
64% 23-13
72% 21-8
58% 19-14
50% 15-15
TTL
61% 22-14
66% 19-10
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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