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CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

8-13-3  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

13-7-2  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Devin Cooley
GOALTENDER

Devin Cooley

#1 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Devin Cooley None-None 2.22 0.895 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.969 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.22 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.895 Save % Ldr 0.969
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
📊
LIGHTNING
100%
FLAMES --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CGY By 1 goal

19.7%

CGY By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CALGARY
2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
CALGARY
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flames Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 TB @ CGY 3 - 4
Nov 26, 2025 CGY @ TB 1 - 5
Feb 27, 2025 CGY @ TB 0 - 3
Dec 12, 2024 TB @ CGY 8 - 3
Mar 7, 2024 CGY @ TB 6 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.2% more
Calgary: 28.4 vs Tampa Bay: 23.0
Faceoff % (L5) +3.8%
Calgary: 51.3% vs Tampa Bay: 47.4%
Takeaways (L5) +26.8% more
Tampa Bay: 4.7 vs Calgary: 3.7
Power Play % (L5) +3.5%
Tampa Bay: 15.8% vs Calgary: 12.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 3.0 1
TB Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.4 / 15.2 15.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 47.4 / 51.3 54.9 / 45.1
Hits 19.9 / 19.4 13.0 / 25.0
Power Play % 1577.0 / 1222.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 23.0 / 28.4 23.0 / 32.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 3.7 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
73%MONEY27%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CGY
TB
CGY
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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