BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
9-9-4 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
10-6-5 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 3.03 | 0.833 | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.03
GAA
--
0.833
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
PENGUINS
0%
SABRES
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BUF @ PIT
5 - 1
Feb 5, 2026
PIT @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 26, 2025
BUF @ PIT
2 - 4
Oct 3, 2025
BUF @ PIT
4 - 5
Oct 1, 2025
PIT @ BUF
5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.1%
Pittsburgh: 51.0%
vs
Buffalo: 46.9%
Hits (L5)
+33.4% more
Buffalo: 20.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.8
Takeaways (L5)
+31.6% more
Buffalo: 5.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+24.2% more
Buffalo: 18.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
2
PIT Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.1 / 18.5
10.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
51.0 / 46.9
58.3 / 41.7
Hits
13.8 / 20.7
17.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
1588.0 / 2566.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.3 / 25.8
19.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 5.5
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BUF
PIT
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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