Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Dukes OMA @ JMU

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

2-4  |  Road

77
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Ocean Bank Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

3-3  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
DUKES
100%
MAVERICKS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Omaha)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

100.0%

Dukes Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OMA -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)

OMA By 1-7 points

0.1%

OMA By 8-14 points

1.1%

JMU By 1-7 points

0.0%

JMU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
87
OMAHA
50
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
69
OMAHA
78
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 OMA @ JMU 77 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.5% more
Omaha: 7.3 vs James Madison: 4.3
Blocks (L5) +188.9% more
James Madison: 4.9 vs Omaha: 1.7
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
James Madison: 39.4 vs Omaha: 34.5
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
James Madison: 72.0% vs Omaha: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 87.0 77
JMU Score 50.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 36.9 57.0 / 34.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.0 28.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.9 / 1.7 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 45.4 55.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 69.9 88.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 34.5 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.3 / 7.3 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 10.8 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
OMA
JMU
OMA
ML
64% 21-12
79% 26-7
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
ATS
67% 22-11
76% 25-8
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
TTL
67% 22-11
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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