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WILLIAM & MARY

TRIBEW&M

4-2  |  Road

92
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 6:30 PM ET
John Hurst Adams Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

3-2  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
TRIBE --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Abilene Christian)
TribeW&M (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tribe Cover

0.8%

Wildcats Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ACU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

W&M By 1-7 points

0.6%

W&M By 8-14 points

0.1%

ACU By 1-7 points

4.0%

ACU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
WILLIAM & MARY
93
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
68
WILLIAM & MARY
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 W&M @ ACU 92 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +15.9% more
Abilene Christian: 4.7 vs William & Mary: 4.0
Steals (L5) +15.2% more
Abilene Christian: 10.2 vs William & Mary: 8.9
Assists (L5) +34.0% more
William & Mary: 19.0 vs Abilene Christian: 12.5
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
William & Mary: 15.8 vs Abilene Christian: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
W&M Score 69.0 92
ACU Score 93.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 33.4 22.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.5 / 19.0 15.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.0 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 39.3 / 47.7 38.0 / 65.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 70.5 35.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 40.3 30.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.2 / 8.9 12.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 15.8 21.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -1.8
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
W&M
ACU
W&M
ML
67% 22-11
55% 17-14
70% 23-10
61% 19-12
ATS
55% 18-15
63% 19-11-1
70% 23-10
61% 19-12
TTL
58% 19-14
61% 19-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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