UNLV
REBELSUNLV
3-4 | Road
76
ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
4-2 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
REBELS
--
CRIMSON TIDE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
81.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
UNLV By 1-7 points
3.3%
UNLV By 8-14 points
0.6%
ALA By 1-7 points
12.2%
ALA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UNLV
32
UNLV
Alabama
49
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
UNLV
70
UNLV
Alabama
82
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson Tide
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Crimson Tide (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 81.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
UNLV @ ALA
76 - 115
Dec 1, 2020
UNLV @ ALA
74 - 86
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Alabama: 33.5%
vs
UNLV: 28.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Alabama: 45.9%
vs
UNLV: 43.8%
Steals (L5)
+20.3% more
UNLV: 9.1
vs
Alabama: 7.2
Turnovers (L5)
+14.8% more
UNLV: 12.5
vs
Alabama: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score
32.0
76
ALA Score
49.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 28.1
42.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.4 / 16.1
20.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.1
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 43.8
55.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 70.1
83.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 40.4
48.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.2 / 9.1
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 12.5
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
ALA
Advantage
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
ALA
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
UNLV
ALA
UNLV
ML
63%
22-13
50%
17-17
58%
19-14
59%
20-14
ATS
60%
21-14
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
59%
20-14
TTL
63%
22-13
62%
21-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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