MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
4-1 | Road
62
MCNEESE
COWBOYSMCN
4-1 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
COWBOYS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS
--
COWBOYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MCN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)
MTSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
MTSU By 8-14 points
18.6%
MCN By 1-7 points
23.0%
MCN By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
74
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
McNeese
72
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
68
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
McNeese
72
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Raiders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cowboys
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cowboys (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Cowboys (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
MTSU @ MCN
62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+23.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 12.3
vs
McNeese: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Middle Tennessee: 34.3%
vs
McNeese: 31.5%
Steals (L5)
+134.7% more
McNeese: 13.3
vs
Middle Tennessee: 5.7
Blocks (L5)
+35.3% more
McNeese: 5.0
vs
Middle Tennessee: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
74.0
62
MCN Score
72.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 34.3
26.0 / 45.0
Assists
17.5 / 14.6
7.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.7
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 46.9
38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
69.6 / 68.4
92.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 37.3
38.0 / 31.0
Steals
13.3 / 5.7
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 12.3
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
MCN
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
MCN
Advantage
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
MTSU
MCN
MTSU
ML
67%
22-11
56%
18-14
88%
28-4
69%
22-10
ATS
76%
25-8
75%
24-8
88%
28-4
69%
22-10
TTL
42%
14-19
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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