NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
3-3 | Road
59
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
3-3 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
0%
GOVERNORS
100%
HUSKIES
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Northern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NIU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)
NIU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NIU By 8-14 points
24.3%
APSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
APSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Illinois
91
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Austin Peay
85
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
Northern Illinois
68
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Austin Peay
72
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Huskies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Huskies (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
NIU @ APSU
59 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.5% more
Northern Illinois: 13.1
vs
Austin Peay: 11.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Northern Illinois: 41.2%
vs
Austin Peay: 33.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Northern Illinois: 74.6%
vs
Austin Peay: 72.6%
Blocks (L5)
+8.3% more
Austin Peay: 1.7
vs
Northern Illinois: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIU Score
91.0
59
APSU Score
85.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 41.2
43.0 / 9.0
Assists
14.4 / 15.4
17.0 / 5.0
Blocks
1.7 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 44.1
53.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 74.6
59.0 / 41.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 33.8
38.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.2
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.1
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
NIU
APSU
NIU
ML
53%
16-14
67%
20-10
59%
16-11
66%
19-10
ATS
57%
17-13
63%
19-11
59%
16-11
66%
19-10
TTL
57%
17-13
67%
20-10
100%
27-0
100%
29-0
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