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RUTGERS

SCARLET KNIGHTSRUTG

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63
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 1:00 PM ET
MGM Grand Garden Arena
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

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68
AI Model Win Probability
SCARLET KNIGHTS
100%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
SCARLET KNIGHTS --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Notre Dame)
Scarlet KnightsRUTG (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Scarlet Knights Cover

21.2%

Fighting Irish Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ND -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

RUTG By 1-7 points

13.7%

RUTG By 8-14 points

4.8%

ND By 1-7 points

25.3%

ND By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
49
RUTGERS
57
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
68
RUTGERS
71
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 106.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 RUTG @ ND 63 - 68
Nov 26, 2024 ND @ RUTG 84 - 85
Mar 16, 2022 ND @ RUTG 89 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Notre Dame: 75.3% vs Rutgers: 69.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Notre Dame: 44.8% vs Rutgers: 41.0%
Blocks (L5) +51.2% more
Rutgers: 4.5 vs Notre Dame: 2.2
Turnovers (L5) +14.9% more
Rutgers: 11.7 vs Notre Dame: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score 49.0 63
ND Score 57.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 31.5 44.0 / 41.0
Assists 9.4 / 10.1 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.5 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 41.0 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 69.9 67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 35.7 37.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.7 / 5.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.7 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
14-20-0 (41.2%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.3
ND Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.3
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +2.6
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
RUTG
ND
RUTG
ML
65% 20-11
53% 18-16
77% 24-7
70% 23-10
ATS
55% 17-14
68% 23-11
77% 24-7
70% 23-10
TTL
68% 21-10
53% 18-16
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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