Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dragons @ Bears DREX @ MORG

DREXEL

DRAGONSDREX

4-4  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 6:00 PM ET
Hill Field House
View Odds Details →

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

1-6  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
DRAGONS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
DREXEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Drexel)
DragonsDREX (-3.5) 0 BearsMORG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dragons Cover

99.8%

Bears Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DREX -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DREX)

DREX By 1-7 points

1.4%

DREX By 8-14 points

5.8%

MORG By 1-7 points

0.1%

MORG By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
83
DREXEL
54
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
75
DREXEL
72
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dragons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dragons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dragons (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Dragons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 DREX @ MORG 71 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +61.0% more
Drexel: 5.4 vs Morgan State: 2.1
Steals (L5) +13.9% more
Drexel: 6.0 vs Morgan State: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.6%
Drexel: 37.8% vs Morgan State: 25.2%
Rebounding (L5) +12.4% more
Drexel: 38.2 vs Morgan State: 33.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DREX Score 83.0 71
MORG Score 54.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.2 / 37.8 15.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.6 / 12.6 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 5.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 42.6 44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 61.7 76.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 38.2 27.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.1 / 6.0 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.2 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DREX Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DREX Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
MORG
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DREX
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -2.8
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
DREX
MORG
DREX
ML
50% 14-14
58% 19-14
58% 14-10
81% 26-6
ATS
50% 14-14
70% 23-10
58% 14-10
81% 26-6
TTL
50% 14-14
48% 16-17
100% 24-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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