Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Spartans NCCU @ UPST

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

2-5  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 7:00 PM ET
G.B. Hodge Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

3-4  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
EAGLES --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (South Carolina Upstate)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 SpartansUPST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

46.0%

Spartans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UPST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)

NCCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NCCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

UPST By 1-7 points

26.2%

UPST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
70
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
70
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
75
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 NCCU @ UPST 67 - 82
Dec 2, 2023 UPST @ NCCU 85 - 82
Dec 1, 2021 NCCU @ UPST 67 - 65
Nov 11, 2019 UPST @ NCCU 64 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.4% more
South Carolina Upstate: 5.1 vs North Carolina Central: 3.8
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
South Carolina Upstate: 43.2% vs North Carolina Central: 39.9%
Turnovers (L5) +23.2% more
North Carolina Central: 14.1 vs South Carolina Upstate: 10.8
Assists (L5) +13.4% more
North Carolina Central: 16.4 vs South Carolina Upstate: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 69.0 67
UPST Score 70.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.9 / 38.6 45.0 / 31.0
Assists 14.2 / 16.4 20.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.8 11.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 39.9 51.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 66.0 / 77.7 73.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 36.3 39.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.5 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 14.1 16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UPST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
NCCU
UPST
NCCU
ML
61% 19-12
65% 20-11
83% 25-5
81% 22-5
ATS
61% 19-12
71% 22-9
83% 25-5
81% 22-5
TTL
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
100% 30-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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