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ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

11-7  |  Road

113
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

1-15  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
HAWKS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Atlanta)
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

94.5%

Wizards Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-7 points

13.7%

ATL By 8-14 points

24.3%

WSH By 1-7 points

4.0%

WSH By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
112
ATLANTA
96
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
112
ATLANTA
118
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (+11) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.5 Loss
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 WSH @ ATL 96 - 126
Feb 24, 2026 WSH @ ATL 98 - 119
Dec 6, 2025 ATL @ WSH 131 - 116
Nov 25, 2025 ATL @ WSH 113 - 132
Feb 8, 2025 ATL @ WSH 125 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.1% more
Atlanta: 5.6 vs Washington: 4.5
Assists (L5) +12.3% more
Atlanta: 31.1 vs Washington: 27.2
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Atlanta: 49.9% vs Washington: 46.2%
Turnovers (L5) +31.1% more
Washington: 15.9 vs Atlanta: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 112.0 113
WSH Score 96.0 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 39.0 50.0 / 35.0
Assists 27.2 / 31.1 30.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.5 / 5.6 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 49.9 57.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 79.2 / 74.7 65.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 38.5 36.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.7 13.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 12.1 13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
70% 112-49
50% 52-52
47% 39-44
55% 48-40
ATS
69% 111-49-1
53% 55-48-1
47% 39-44
55% 48-40
TTL
74% 119-41-1
53% 55-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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