Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Buckeyes MSM @ OSU

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

1-6  |  Road

60
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 6:30 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

6-0  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
BUCKEYES
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Ohio State)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

42.1%

Buckeyes Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

MSM By 1-7 points

23.0%

MSM By 8-14 points

12.2%

OSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

OSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
73
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
75
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
60
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
85
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 MSM @ OSU 60 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +192.9% more
Ohio State: 6.6 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.2
Assists (L5) +13.6% more
Ohio State: 17.3 vs Mount St. Mary's: 15.3
Free Throw % (L5) +13.0%
Ohio State: 78.3% vs Mount St. Mary's: 65.3%
Rebounding (L5) +10.4% more
Ohio State: 38.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 35.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 73.0 60
OSU Score 75.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 37.0 48.0 / 19.0
Assists 17.3 / 15.3 19.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.3 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 42.7 64.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 65.3 84.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 35.1 41.0 / 22.0
Steals 6.6 / 2.2 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 17.3 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
OSU
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
MSM
OSU
MSM
ML
53% 18-16
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
61% 19-12
ATS
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
61% 19-12
TTL
56% 19-15
81% 26-6
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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