SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
3-3 | Road
61
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
6-0 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
LANCERS
0%
TOREROS
--
LANCERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (California Baptist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CBU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)
USD By 1-7 points
24.3%
USD By 8-14 points
13.7%
CBU By 1-7 points
26.2%
CBU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
78
SAN DIEGO
California Baptist
79
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
San Diego
71
SAN DIEGO
California Baptist
76
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lancers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lancers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lancers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Lancers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
USD @ CBU
61 - 76
Dec 10, 2022
CBU @ USD
76 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+27.9% more
California Baptist: 41.7
vs
San Diego: 32.6
Steals (L5)
+15.9% more
California Baptist: 8.7
vs
San Diego: 7.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
California Baptist: 46.3%
vs
San Diego: 42.5%
Blocks (L5)
+50.2% more
San Diego: 5.8
vs
California Baptist: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
78.0
61
CBU Score
79.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 35.6
38.0 / 14.0
Assists
11.4 / 14.7
11.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.8
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 42.5
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 76.4
79.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 32.6
42.0 / 21.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.5
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.0
17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
USD
CBU
USD
ML
50%
17-17
58%
19-14
76%
25-8
70%
23-10
ATS
53%
18-16
55%
18-15
76%
25-8
70%
23-10
TTL
47%
16-18
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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