Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Anteaters NMSU @ UCI

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

5-0  |  Road

57
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 8:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya
View Odds Details →

UC IRVINE

ANTEATERSUCI

3-4  |  Home

45
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
ANTEATERS
100%
AGGIES --
ANTEATERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (New Mexico State)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 AnteatersUCI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

99.7%

Anteaters Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

2.2%

NMSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

UCI By 1-7 points

0.3%

UCI By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NEW MEXICO STATE
49
UC IRVINE
Simulated Score
67
NEW MEXICO STATE
73
UC IRVINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Anteaters Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Anteaters (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 NMSU @ UCI 57 - 45
Nov 11, 2023 NMSU @ UCI 74 - 91
Nov 26, 2022 NMSU @ UCI 68 - 85
Nov 9, 2021 UCI @ NMSU 51 - 62
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
New Mexico State: 36.3% vs UC Irvine: 29.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
New Mexico State: 71.4% vs UC Irvine: 67.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
New Mexico State: 46.7% vs UC Irvine: 45.1%
Blocks (L5) +155.8% more
UC Irvine: 7.8 vs New Mexico State: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 76.0 57
UCI Score 49.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 36.3 13.0 / 13.0
Assists 16.5 / 13.8 4.0 / 5.0
Blocks 7.8 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 46.7 27.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 67.4 / 71.4 66.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 44.0 / 36.1 25.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.7 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 8.7 18.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
UCI Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
UCI Advantage
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCI
NMSU
UCI
NMSU
ML
57% 20-15
61% 19-12
53% 18-16
67% 20-10
ATS
63% 22-13
65% 20-11
53% 18-16
67% 20-10
TTL
57% 20-15
45% 14-17
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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