Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Utes @ Lopes UTAH @ GCU

UTAH

UTESUTAH

5-1  |  Road

58
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 11:59 PM ET
Acrisure Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

3-2  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
UTES
100%
📊
LOPES
0%
UTES --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Grand Canyon)
UtesUTAH (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utes Cover

21.2%

Lopes Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

UTAH By 1-7 points

13.7%

UTAH By 8-14 points

4.8%

GCU By 1-7 points

25.3%

GCU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
UTAH
79
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
73
UTAH
76
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lopes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+8) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 UTAH @ GCU 58 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Grand Canyon: 80.0% vs Utah: 77.5%
Blocks (L5) +17.9% more
Utah: 4.5 vs Grand Canyon: 3.7
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
Utah: 16.2 vs Grand Canyon: 13.9
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Utah: 6.6 vs Grand Canyon: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 71.0 58
GCU Score 79.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 34.4 0.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.9 / 16.2 9.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 47.0 40.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 80.0 / 77.5 69.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 37.3 33.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.6 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 12.9 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
UTAH
GCU
UTAH
ML
66% 21-11
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
ATS
72% 23-9
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
TTL
44% 14-18
41% 13-19
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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