Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Hurricane @ Spartans TLSA @ SJSU

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

4-1  |  Road

81
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 1:30 PM ET
Acrisure Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

2-3  |  Home

51
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Tulsa)
Golden HurricaneTLSA (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Hurricane Cover

86.4%

Spartans Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TLSA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

TLSA By 1-7 points

21.6%

TLSA By 8-14 points

27.4%

SJSU By 1-7 points

9.3%

SJSU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
75
TULSA
64
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
73
TULSA
67
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Hurricane Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Golden Hurricane (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 TLSA @ SJSU 81 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
Tulsa: 17.2 vs San José State: 13.5
Blocks (L5) +11.2% more
Tulsa: 2.5 vs San José State: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.4%
Tulsa: 79.8% vs San José State: 69.4%
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
San José State: 13.0 vs Tulsa: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 75.0 81
SJSU Score 64.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 36.6 33.0 / 52.0
Assists 13.5 / 17.2 7.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 45.9 33.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 79.8 70.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 35.9 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.6 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 11.1 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
TLSA
SJSU
TLSA
ML
73% 24-9
66% 25-13
62% 20-12
64% 23-13
ATS
73% 24-9
74% 28-10
62% 20-12
64% 23-13
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 22-16
100% 32-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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