Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Panthers SAM @ GAST

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

3-4  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 3:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

1-5  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Georgia State)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 PanthersGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.8%

Panthers Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GAST -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

SAM By 1-7 points

0.6%

SAM By 8-14 points

0.1%

GAST By 1-7 points

4.0%

GAST By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SAMFORD
93
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
75
SAMFORD
68
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 SAM @ GAST 78 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +89.1% more
Georgia State: 13.7 vs Samford: 7.3
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
Georgia State: 6.1 vs Samford: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5) +2.3%
Georgia State: 72.6% vs Samford: 70.3%
Assists (L5) +10.3% more
Samford: 12.6 vs Georgia State: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 69.0 78
GAST Score 93.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 30.6 21.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.3 / 12.6 8.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 37.0 / 39.8 26.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 70.3 89.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 33.8 36.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.5 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 7.3 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
SAM
GAST
SAM
ML
56% 18-14
65% 20-11
71% 22-9
68% 21-10
ATS
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
71% 22-9
68% 21-10
TTL
59% 19-13
35% 11-20
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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