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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

4-1  |  Road

60
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 7:30 PM ET
John Gray Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

MCNEESE

COWBOYSMCN

3-1  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
RACERS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (McNeese)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 CowboysMCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

27.4%

Cowboys Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MCN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)

MUR By 1-7 points

16.9%

MUR By 8-14 points

6.8%

MCN By 1-7 points

26.8%

MCN By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
82
MURRAY STATE
88
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
72
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 MUR @ MCN 60 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +96.4% more
McNeese: 12.4 vs Murray State: 6.3
Blocks (L5) +27.9% more
McNeese: 5.0 vs Murray State: 3.9
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
McNeese: 18.3 vs Murray State: 14.9
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
McNeese: 78.0% vs Murray State: 74.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 82.0 60
MCN Score 88.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 39.1 22.0 / 27.0
Assists 18.3 / 14.9 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 49.3 41.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 74.1 53.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 34.9 40.0 / 48.0
Steals 12.4 / 6.3 15.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.0 8.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
MCN Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
MCN Advantage
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
MUR
MCN
MUR
ML
67% 22-11
58% 19-14
88% 28-4
61% 20-13
ATS
76% 25-8
52% 17-16
88% 28-4
61% 20-13
TTL
42% 14-19
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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