Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ C Michigan TOL @ CMU

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

7-4  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

7-4  |  Home

3
Key Game
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Emilio Duran None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
0%
📊
C MICHIGAN
100%
TOLEDO --
C MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Toledo)
ToledoTOL (-3.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

61.2%

C Michigan Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TOL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-6 points

17.0%

TOL By 7-13 points

18.0%

CMU By 1-6 points

14.7%

CMU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
TOLEDO
20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
17
TOLEDO
34
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Toledo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim C Michigan Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Toledo (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim C Michigan (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 TOL @ CMU 21 - 3
Nov 12, 2024 CMU @ TOL 10 - 37
Nov 24, 2023 TOL @ CMU 32 - 17
Oct 1, 2022 CMU @ TOL 17 - 38
Oct 16, 2021 TOL @ CMU 23 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.1% more
Toledo: 1.6 vs Central Michigan: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.2% more
Toledo: 393.5 vs Central Michigan: 329.9
First Downs (L5) +14.3% more
Toledo: 19.5 vs Central Michigan: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 24.0 21
CMU Score 20.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 19.5 15.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 160.0 / 157.2 81.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 329.9 / 393.5 323.0 / 411.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
CMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
TOL
CMU
TOL
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Texas AD Chris Del Conte Slams Longhorns' Vulgar Celebrations as…
cenlanow 1 week, 1 day ago
Michigan QB Bryce Underwood Accused of 'Seeing Ghosts' by Anonym…
bleacherreport 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Michigan State Navigates Injury Concerns and Fresh Talent Ahead …
headtopics 1 month ago
Hoosiers' Nick Marsh Hauls in Jaw-Dropping One-Handed Grab in Se…
si 1 month ago
Spartans Open 2026 Campaign Against Toledo: Live Coverage, Kicko…
freep 1 month ago