Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa State @ Oklahoma St ISU @ OKST

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

7-4  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-10  |  Home

13
Key Game
Zane Flores
KEY GAME

Zane Flores

#6 | Quarterback
@
Kobi Foreman
KEY GAME

Kobi Foreman

#14 | Cornerback
Player
Zane Flores None-None
Kobi Foreman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
IOWA STATE --
OKLAHOMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Iowa State)
Iowa StateISU (-3.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa State Cover

98.7%

Oklahoma St Cover

1.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ISU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ISU By 1-6 points

2.5%

ISU By 7-13 points

6.6%

OKST By 1-6 points

0.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
IOWA STATE
7
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
28
IOWA STATE
31
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Iowa State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Iowa State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Oklahoma St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ISU @ OKST 20 - 13
Sep 23, 2023 OKST @ ISU 27 - 34
Nov 12, 2022 ISU @ OKST 14 - 20
Oct 23, 2021 OKST @ ISU 21 - 24
Oct 24, 2020 ISU @ OKST 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.4% more
Iowa State: 184.9 vs Oklahoma State: 115.7
Total Yards (L5) +28.4% more
Iowa State: 397.3 vs Oklahoma State: 284.6
First Downs (L5) +25.9% more
Iowa State: 21.6 vs Oklahoma State: 16.0
Turnovers (L5) +68.4% more
Oklahoma State: 1.9 vs Iowa State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 38.0 20
OKST Score 7.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.0 / 21.6 11.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 115.7 / 184.9 27.0 / 233.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 284.6 / 397.3 229.0 / 346.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
ISU
OKST
ISU
ML
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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