HOUSTON
HOUSTONHOU
8-3 | Road
31
BAYLOR
BAYLORBAY
5-6 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Liam Dougherty
#91 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Devonte Tezino
#59 | Defensive Lineman| Player | |
|---|---|
| Liam Dougherty | None-None |
| Devonte Tezino | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
0%
BAYLOR
100%
HOUSTON
--
BAYLOR
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-6 points
10.7%
HOU By 7-13 points
17.5%
BAY By 1-6 points
5.9%
BAY By 7-13 points
3.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
38
HOUSTON
Baylor
21
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
Houston
24
HOUSTON
Baylor
27
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Houston
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Baylor
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Houston (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim
Baylor (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
HOU @ BAY
31 - 24
Nov 23, 2024
BAY @ HOU
20 - 10
Nov 4, 2023
HOU @ BAY
25 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+18.9% more
Houston: 187.7
vs
Baylor: 152.2
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
Baylor: 2.3
vs
Houston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
38.0
31
BAY Score
21.0
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
23.3 / 21.6
25.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards
152.2 / 187.7
112.0 / 216.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.27 / 0.36
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards
420.5 / 399.9
421.0 / 417.0
Turnovers
2.3 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 21.2
ATS +/-: +2.7
BAY
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 20.6
ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 21.2
ATS +/-: +2.7
BAY
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 20.6
ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.5
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
HOU
BAY
HOU
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
TTL
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
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