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UCF

UCFUCF

5-6  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 1:00 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

10-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jeffson Lafontant
KEY GAME

Jeffson Lafontant

#92 | Defensive Tackle
@
Cannon DeVries
KEY GAME

Cannon DeVries

#32 | Cornerback
Player
Jeffson Lafontant None-None
Cannon DeVries None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
100%
📊
BYU
0%
UCF --
BYU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (BYU)
UCFUCF (-3.5) 0 BYUBYU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCF Cover

11.2%

BYU Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BYU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

UCF By 1-6 points

5.9%

UCF By 7-13 points

3.2%

BYU By 1-6 points

10.7%

BYU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
UCF
24
BYU
Simulated Score
27
UCF
31
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI BYU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim BYU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI BYU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim BYU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 UCF @ BYU 21 - 41
Oct 26, 2024 BYU @ UCF 37 - 24
Dec 22, 2020 UCF @ BYU 23 - 49
Oct 9, 2014 BYU @ UCF 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.9% more
BYU: 183.7 vs UCF: 125.0
First Downs (L5) +42.2% more
BYU: 22.5 vs UCF: 15.8
Total Yards (L5) +15.1% more
BYU: 390.1 vs UCF: 338.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
BYU: 0.4 vs UCF: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 7.0 21
BYU Score 24.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 15.8 21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 183.7 / 125.0 118.0 / 42.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 390.1 / 338.8 407.0 / 296.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
UCF
BYU
UCF
ML
100% 3-0
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
0% 0-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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