Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Jax State WKU @ JXST

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

8-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

7-4  |  Home

37
Key Game
Jordan Donald
KEY GAME

Jordan Donald

#22 | Linebacker
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Jordan Donald None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
0%
📊
JAX STATE
100%
WESTERN KY --
JAX STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (-3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

58.5%

Jax State Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WKU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

17.0%

WKU By 7-13 points

17.5%

JXST By 1-6 points

15.3%

JXST By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
23
WESTERN KENTUCKY
20
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
31
WESTERN KENTUCKY
28
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Western KY Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Western KY Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Western KY (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Western KY (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 WKU @ JXST 34 - 37
Dec 6, 2024 WKU @ JXST 12 - 52
Nov 30, 2024 JXST @ WKU 17 - 19
Oct 17, 2023 WKU @ JXST 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.8% more
Western Kentucky: 1.6 vs Jacksonville State: 1.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.4 vs Jacksonville State: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +106.8% more
Jacksonville State: 250.6 vs Western Kentucky: 121.2
Total Yards (L5) +19.9% more
Jacksonville State: 437.2 vs Western Kentucky: 364.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 23.0 34
JXST Score 20.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 20.6 24.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 250.6 / 121.2 293.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 437.2 / 364.7 515.0 / 384.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
JXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
WKU
JXST
WKU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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