Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UAB @ Tulsa UAB @ TLSA

UAB

UABUAB

3-8  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

4-7  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
@
Cam East
KEY GAME

Cam East

#73 | Offensive Lineman
Player
Jonah Delange None-None
Cam East None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
100%
📊
TULSA
0%
UAB --
TULSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Tulsa)
UABUAB (-3.5) 0 TulsaTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

14.2%

Tulsa Cover

85.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TLSA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

UAB By 1-6 points

7.2%

UAB By 7-13 points

4.1%

TLSA By 1-6 points

12.2%

TLSA By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23
UAB
38
TULSA
Simulated Score
28
UAB
31
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tulsa Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tulsa Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tulsa (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Sim Tulsa (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 UAB @ TLSA 31 - 24
Nov 2, 2024 TLSA @ UAB 21 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.5% more
Tulsa: 207.9 vs UAB: 142.0
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Tulsa: 441.8 vs UAB: 397.4
Turnovers (L5) +37.2% more
UAB: 2.5 vs Tulsa: 1.6
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
UAB: 0.6 vs Tulsa: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 23.0 31
TLSA Score 38.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 24.0 19.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 207.9 / 142.0 198.0 / 229.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 441.8 / 397.4 357.0 / 395.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
UAB
TLSA
UAB
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
75% 3-1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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