Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ New Mexico St MTSU @ NMSU

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

2-9  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

4-7  |  Home

24
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Lorenzo Smith
KEY GAME

Lorenzo Smith

#0 | Safety
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Lorenzo Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
0%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
100%
MTSU --
NEW MEXICO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
MTSUMTSU (-3.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

95.7%

New Mexico St Cover

4.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MTSU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MTSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

MTSU By 7-13 points

12.1%

NMSU By 1-6 points

2.5%

NMSU By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
38
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
14
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
27
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI MTSU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI MTSU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim New Mexico St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 MTSU @ NMSU 31 - 24
Nov 23, 2024 NMSU @ MTSU 36 - 21
Nov 4, 2023 MTSU @ NMSU 7 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Middle Tennessee: 130.7 vs New Mexico State: 106.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Middle Tennessee: 432.4 vs New Mexico State: 361.8
Turnovers (L5) +130.0% more
New Mexico State: 2.1 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +11.2% more
New Mexico State: 23.5 vs Middle Tennessee: 21.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 38.0 31
NMSU Score 14.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 21.1 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 106.5 / 130.7 84.0 / 199.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 361.8 / 432.4 395.0 / 459.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
7%MONEY93%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
NMSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
MTSU
NMSU
MTSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
83% 5-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Boise State Rolls Past Utah State 37-18 in First Pac-12 Clash fo…
abcnews 4 days, 17 hours ago
Texas A&M's Blank End Zone Post Becomes a Meme Magnet as Interne…
foxnews 1 week, 1 day ago
Texas A&M Lineman Backs QB Marcel Reed Despite Offensive Struggl…
yahoo 1 week, 1 day ago
Mike Elko's Unwavering Commitment to Marcel Reed Raises Concerns…
victoriaadvocate 1 week, 1 day ago
Texas A&M Faces Defining Test at LSU After Kentucky Setback
si 1 week, 6 days ago