Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Washington ORE @ WASH

OREGON

OREGONORE

10-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

8-3  |  Home

14
Key Game
Ify Obidegwu
KEY GAME

Ify Obidegwu

#7 | Defensive Back
@
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
Player
Ify Obidegwu None-None
Luke Dunne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
100%
📊
WASHINGTON
0%
OREGON --
WASHINGTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Washington)
OregonORE (-3.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

30.9%

Washington Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WASH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

ORE By 1-6 points

12.9%

ORE By 7-13 points

9.6%

WASH By 1-6 points

16.5%

WASH By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
OREGON
31
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
30
OREGON
34
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Washington (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Washington (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ORE @ WASH 26 - 14
Nov 30, 2024 WASH @ ORE 21 - 49
Dec 1, 2023 ORE @ WASH 31 - 34
Oct 14, 2023 ORE @ WASH 33 - 36
Nov 12, 2022 WASH @ ORE 37 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.5% more
Washington: 1.5 vs Oregon: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Oregon: 207.5 vs Washington: 173.2
Total Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Oregon: 449.6 vs Washington: 412.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 24.0 26
WASH Score 31.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 23.8 18.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 173.2 / 207.5 154.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 412.2 / 449.6 283.0 / 392.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
WASH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
ORE
WASH
ORE
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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