Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ Tennessee VAN @ TENN

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

9-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

8-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Glenn Seabrooks III
KEY GAME

Glenn Seabrooks III

#53 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Glenn Seabrooks III None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
100%
📊
TENNESSEE
0%
VANDERBILT --
TENNESSEE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tennessee)
VanderbiltVAN (-3.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

38.8%

Tennessee Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TENN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

VAN By 1-6 points

14.7%

VAN By 7-13 points

12.1%

TENN By 1-6 points

17.0%

TENN By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27
VANDERBILT
31
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
17
VANDERBILT
41
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tennessee Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tennessee Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tennessee (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Tennessee (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 VAN @ TENN 45 - 24
Nov 30, 2024 TENN @ VAN 36 - 23
Nov 25, 2023 VAN @ TENN 24 - 48
Nov 26, 2022 TENN @ VAN 56 - 0
Nov 27, 2021 VAN @ TENN 21 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.7% more
Tennessee: 182.8 vs Vanderbilt: 121.3
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Tennessee: 1.1 vs Vanderbilt: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +8.7% more
Vanderbilt: 494.7 vs Tennessee: 451.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 27.0 45
TENN Score 31.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.8 / 25.7 21.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 182.8 / 121.3 83.0 / 314.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.7
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 451.7 / 494.7 382.0 / 579.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
TENN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
VAN
TENN
VAN
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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