Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ Duke WAKE @ DUKE

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

8-3  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

6-5  |  Home

49
Key Game
Connor Calvert
KEY GAME

Connor Calvert

#90 | Place kicker
@
Kevin O'Connor
KEY GAME

Kevin O'Connor

#15 | Defensive End
Player
Connor Calvert None-None
Kevin O'Connor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
0%
📊
DUKE
100%
WAKE FOREST --
DUKE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Wake Forest)
Wake ForestWAKE (-3.5) 0 DukeDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

84.1%

Duke Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WAKE -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)

WAKE By 1-6 points

12.9%

WAKE By 7-13 points

19.0%

DUKE By 1-6 points

7.9%

DUKE By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
28
WAKE FOREST
14
DUKE
Simulated Score
24
WAKE FOREST
27
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wake Forest Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Duke Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wake Forest (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Duke (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 WAKE @ DUKE 32 - 49
Nov 30, 2024 DUKE @ WAKE 23 - 17
Nov 2, 2023 WAKE @ DUKE 21 - 24
Nov 26, 2022 WAKE @ DUKE 31 - 34
Oct 30, 2021 DUKE @ WAKE 7 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.1% more
Wake Forest: 1.5 vs Duke: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.9% more
Wake Forest: 192.5 vs Duke: 127.2
Total Yards (L5) +12.0% more
Wake Forest: 412.3 vs Duke: 363.1
First Downs (L5) +14.9% more
Duke: 21.1 vs Wake Forest: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 28.0 32
DUKE Score 14.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 18.4 24.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 127.2 / 192.5 110.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 363.1 / 412.3 378.0 / 468.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
WAKE
DUKE
WAKE
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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