Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Penn State @ Rutgers PSU @ RUTG

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

5-6  |  Road

40
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
SHI Stadium
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

5-6  |  Home

36
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Jakob Anderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
0%
📊
RUTGERS
100%
PENN STATE --
RUTGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Penn State)
Penn StatePSU (-3.5) 0 RutgersRUTG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

97.7%

Rutgers Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

PSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

PSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

RUTG By 1-6 points

1.4%

RUTG By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
38
PENN STATE
10
RUTGERS
Simulated Score
10
PENN STATE
31
RUTGERS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penn State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Rutgers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penn State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Rutgers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 PSU @ RUTG 40 - 36
Nov 18, 2023 RUTG @ PSU 6 - 27
Nov 19, 2022 PSU @ RUTG 55 - 10
Nov 20, 2021 RUTG @ PSU 0 - 28
Dec 5, 2020 PSU @ RUTG 23 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.7% more
Penn State: 185.9 vs Rutgers: 130.7
Turnovers (L5) +48.0% more
Rutgers: 1.2 vs Penn State: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 38.0 40
RUTG Score 10.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 18.5 27.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 130.7 / 185.9 195.0 / 300.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 328.4 / 350.3 533.0 / 509.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
RUTG
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
PSU
RUTG
PSU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 20 hours ago
Rutgers Crushed by Indiana 47-15 as Schiano Searches for Answers
si 3 days, 8 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 14 hours ago
College Football Week 5: Six Ranked Showdowns Highlight Saturday…
si 5 days, 14 hours ago
Penn State's Second Straight Loss Exposes Alarming Statistical T…
yahoo 5 days, 14 hours ago