Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Cincinnati @ TCU CIN @ TCU

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

7-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

7-4  |  Home

45
Key Game
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
@
Nate McCashland
KEY GAME

Nate McCashland

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Max Fletcher None-None
Nate McCashland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CINCINNATI
0%
📊
TCU
100%
CINCINNATI --
TCU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Cincinnati)
CincinnatiCIN (-3.5) 0 TCUTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cincinnati Cover

84.1%

TCU Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CIN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-6 points

12.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.0%

TCU By 1-6 points

7.9%

TCU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31
CINCINNATI
17
TCU
Simulated Score
31
CINCINNATI
27
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 CIN @ TCU 23 - 45
Nov 30, 2024 TCU @ CIN 20 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.2% more
Cincinnati: 161.7 vs TCU: 121.0
Turnovers (L5) +54.6% more
TCU: 2.5 vs Cincinnati: 1.6
First Downs (L5) +11.1% more
TCU: 21.1 vs Cincinnati: 19.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 31.0 23
TCU Score 17.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 19.0 27.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 121.0 / 161.7 238.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 388.6 / 390.7 544.0 / 397.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
CIN
TCU
CIN
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Red River Rivalry Rebooted: Why Texas-Oklahoma No Longer Decides…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Former Texas A&M Head Coach Dennis Franchione Dies at 75 After 1…
si 2 days, 5 hours ago
College Football Legend Dennis Franchione Passes Away at 75
aggieswire 2 days, 5 hours ago
David Pollack's Bold Cam Coleman Comparison Draws Fiery Backlash…
headtopics 2 days, 18 hours ago