Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ Southern Miss TROY @ USM

TROY

TROYTROY

7-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

7-4  |  Home

18
Key Game
Jonathan Pennix
KEY GAME

Jonathan Pennix

#14 | Cornerback
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Jonathan Pennix None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
100%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
0%
TROY --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Southern Miss)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

15.9%

Southern Miss Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

TROY By 1-6 points

7.9%

TROY By 7-13 points

4.7%

USM By 1-6 points

12.9%

USM By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13
TROY
27
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
27
TROY
23
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Troy (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 6, 2026 USM @ TROY 34 - 55
Nov 29, 2025 TROY @ USM 28 - 18
Nov 30, 2024 USM @ TROY 20 - 52
Nov 25, 2023 TROY @ USM 35 - 17
Oct 8, 2022 USM @ TROY 10 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.4% more
Southern Miss: 116.4 vs Troy: 68.3
Total Yards (L5) +42.0% more
Southern Miss: 433.2 vs Troy: 305.0
First Downs (L5) +38.2% more
Southern Miss: 21.8 vs Troy: 15.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.3% more
Southern Miss: 1.6 vs Troy: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 13.0 28
USM Score 27.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 15.8 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 116.4 / 68.3 95.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 433.2 / 305.0 304.0 / 428.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
TROY
USM
TROY
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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