Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Army @ UTSA ARMY @ UTSA

ARMY

ARMYARMY

5-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

6-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Dawson Jones None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
100%
📊
UTSA
0%
ARMY --
UTSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (UTSA)
ArmyARMY (-3.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Army Cover

11.2%

UTSA Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTSA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

ARMY By 1-6 points

5.9%

ARMY By 7-13 points

3.2%

UTSA By 1-6 points

10.7%

UTSA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
ARMY
27
UTSA
Simulated Score
24
ARMY
28
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTSA Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTSA Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTSA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim UTSA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ARMY @ UTSA 27 - 24
Nov 30, 2024 UTSA @ ARMY 24 - 29
Sep 15, 2023 ARMY @ UTSA 37 - 29
Sep 10, 2022 UTSA @ ARMY 41 - 38
Oct 17, 2020 ARMY @ UTSA 28 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.0% more
UTSA: 1.1 vs Army: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +47.2% more
UTSA: 450.5 vs Army: 306.0
First Downs (L5) +35.1% more
UTSA: 25.4 vs Army: 18.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Army: 239.1 vs UTSA: 177.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score 10.0 27
UTSA Score 27.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.4 / 18.8 18.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 177.7 / 239.1 116.0 / 233.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 450.5 / 306.0 386.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
1-2-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.0
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
ARMY
UTSA
ARMY
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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