Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Coastal JMU @ CCU

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

10-1  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:45 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC)
View Odds Details →

COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

6-5  |  Home

10
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Dre Pinckney
KEY GAME

Dre Pinckney

#12 | Safety
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Dre Pinckney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
0%
📊
COASTAL
100%
JAMES MADISON --
COASTAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (-3.5) 0 CoastalCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

98.1%

Coastal Cover

1.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JMU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

3.3%

JMU By 7-13 points

8.0%

CCU By 1-6 points

1.2%

CCU By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
42
JAMES MADISON
13
COASTAL CAROLINA
Simulated Score
24
JAMES MADISON
31
COASTAL CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Coastal Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI James Madison (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Sim Coastal (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 JMU @ CCU 59 - 10
Oct 10, 2024 CCU @ JMU 7 - 39
Nov 25, 2023 JMU @ CCU 56 - 14
Nov 26, 2022 CCU @ JMU 7 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.5% more
James Madison: 224.9 vs Coastal Carolina: 169.9
Total Yards (L5) +21.7% more
James Madison: 451.7 vs Coastal Carolina: 353.5
First Downs (L5) +18.1% more
James Madison: 21.6 vs Coastal Carolina: 17.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
James Madison: 0.5 vs Coastal Carolina: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 42.0 59
CCU Score 13.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 21.6 10.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 169.9 / 224.9 -5.0 / 286.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.12 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 353.5 / 451.7 170.0 / 525.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
CCU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
CCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
CCU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCU
JMU
CCU
JMU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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