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FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

5-6  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 4:30 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

3-8  |  Home

40
Key Game
AJ Cottrill
KEY GAME

AJ Cottrill

#41 | Linebacker
@
Joseph Mbatchou
KEY GAME

Joseph Mbatchou

#97 | Defensive Lineman
Player
AJ Cottrill None-None
Joseph Mbatchou None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
0%
📊
FLORIDA
100%
FLORIDA ST --
FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Florida State)
Florida StFSU (-3.5) 0 FloridaFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

58.5%

Florida Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

FSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

FSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

FLA By 1-6 points

15.3%

FLA By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
17
FLORIDA STATE
14
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA STATE
30
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Florida St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 FSU @ FLA 21 - 40
Nov 30, 2024 FLA @ FSU 31 - 11
Nov 25, 2023 FSU @ FLA 24 - 15
Nov 25, 2022 FLA @ FSU 38 - 45
Nov 27, 2021 FSU @ FLA 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.1% more
Florida State: 2.0 vs Florida: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.7% more
Florida State: 181.1 vs Florida: 125.5
First Downs (L5) +27.8% more
Florida State: 22.3 vs Florida: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +27.0% more
Florida State: 409.5 vs Florida: 298.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 17.0 21
FLA Score 14.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 22.3 26.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 125.5 / 181.1 272.0 / 167.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 298.9 / 409.5 440.0 / 407.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
FLA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
FLA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
FSU
FLA
FSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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