Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rice @ South Florida RICE @ USF

RICE

RICERICE

5-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

8-3  |  Home

52
Key Game
Enock Gota
KEY GAME

Enock Gota

#28 | Place kicker
@
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
Player
Enock Gota None-None
Nico Gramatica None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
100%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
RICE --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-62.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +62.0 points (South Florida)
RiceRICE (-3.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

0.0%

South Florida Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -62.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

RICE By 1-6 points

0.0%

RICE By 7-13 points

0.0%

USF By 1-6 points

0.0%

USF By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
0
RICE
62
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
28
RICE
31
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Florida Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -62.0
C
Sim South Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 RICE @ USF 3 - 52
Nov 30, 2024 USF @ RICE 28 - 35
Sep 23, 2023 RICE @ USF 29 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.0% more
South Florida: 1.3 vs Rice: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +64.2% more
South Florida: 533.3 vs Rice: 324.7
First Downs (L5) +27.0% more
South Florida: 24.2 vs Rice: 19.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
South Florida: 0.5 vs Rice: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 0.0 3
USF Score 62.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 19.0 30.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 224.0 / 226.2 272.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 533.3 / 324.7 553.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
USF Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: -2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
USF
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: -2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
USF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
RICE
USF
RICE
ML
67% 4-2
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
TTL
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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